This is a CTP of initiative: INFORSE ‐VE (Denmark)
1997-2002: Scenarios for a 100 % sustainable energy future VE decided to develop scenarios for a 100 % sustainable energy future. Without hydropower, a society based on 100 % sustainable energy is a challenge, and earlier plans did not envisage this big step. These plans were developed together with researchers in favour of sustainable energy – these researchers did, however, not find 100 % realistic. GBO: We needed scenarios that were more ambitious than those the researchers developed. We needed more ambitious researchers, but the researchers did not wish to divert too much from the official projections. VE had to develop the scenarios without help; VE had to build up this capacity. GBO: In 1997 we developed the first (Danish) scenarios for sustainable energy in 2030. Then we went on with a global strategy. We presented the scenarios for the Commission on Sustainable Development in 2001. VE and Inforse have collaborated in the process of developing scenarios. Furthermore, new policy-areas had to be included as 100 % sustainable energy cannot be reached without including areas outside the energy sector. The scenarios developed for Denmark became a platform for developing scenarios for a 100 % sustainable energy future in other countries.
The collaboration with researches had been very important in the past. The researched had, however, according to GBO become too dependent on the official energy policies and lacked the opportunities to go for more ambitious goals. VE has co-produced visions of 100 % sustainable energy futures with local NGO’s in a number of Eastern European countries.
Establishing Inforse was an important step in having more professional relations with NGOs in Eastern European countries. The recognition of sustainable energy in the official Danish energy policies is a step forward for sustainable energy, but does at the same time make the researchers less independent. Earlier the researchers had been key in developing the scenarios. The Alternative Energy Scenario from 1983 envisaged 12 % renewable energy supply in Denmark in the year 2000, but had the general idea that it would be possible to be 100 % supplied by sustainable energy in 2030.
The dominant conflict was concerning the possibilities of developing Denmark on 100 % sustainable energy. People outside VE found the scenarios unrealistic, or at least found that this goal only could be reached in a distant future. The researchers who used to be close allies were now considered partly as opponents. GBO interprets the researchers’ position as they are afraid to upset people in power. The more ambitious scenarios is depending on political courage; for instance that you are able to say that you do not not want traffic to grow as much as in the official projections.
This critical turning point is the result of slow development. The single activities were planned when it was necessary to plan them – step by step.
This critical turning point relates to the professionalization process, and the importance of being able to build up professional capacities. A very specific lesson learned was that it is difficult to transfer results to other countries; you have to be able to take the specific local conditions into consideration. The French and Hungarian NGOs managed to develop their own visions of 100 % sustainable energy, a number of other countries have – as mentioned before – had help from VE to develop their scenarios. Today, it is no longer controversial to state that Denmark should be based on 100 % renewable energy. But there are still differences between the most general ideas of the change and VE’s vision. One of the controversies is about the speed of the transition. VE is arguing that the transition should happen faster than succeeding in 2050, and the transition to 100 % renewable energy in 2030 is possible.
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